Scientists raise alarm on Basin Plan

The scientists who conducted a review of the methodology used by the Murray Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) have confirmed fears that the proposed Basin Plan will not meet specified environmental objectives.

The review, which has been prepared by the CSIRO and published on the MDBA website, says that:

• The modelled scenario of 2800GL SDLs does “not achieve the majority of the hydrologic targets”, and “is not consistent with the currently stated environmental goals”
• Modelling of higher SDL scenarios is needed to determine the reasons for the modelled shortfalls
• "It has not been demonstrated that the indicator KEA [Key Environmental Assets] are ecologically representative of the range of water-dependent ecosystems across the Basin".

Conservation Council SA Chief Executive Tim Kelly said: “This is particularly alarming given that the likelihood of meeting these targets completely ignored the impact of future climate change. Instead, the MDBA chose to use historical climate data”.

The scientists note that “this policy represents a significant risk to the environment during future extended dry periods, especially should these be more severe than in the past as a result of future climate change”.

“In the context of recent reports by the International Energy Agency that we could be heading for 3.5 to 6 degrees of warming this century without immediate global action, there is no possible justification for ignoring climate change impacts when determining SDLs,” said Mr Kelly.

“Denial of the reality of climate change will destine this plan to failure, as will the MDBA’s unwillingness to even model the SDLs that are necessary.

“The CSIRO review might be articulated in the cautious language used by scientists, but its message is loud and clear: this draft plan cannot assure a healthy working Basin or a healthy environment” concluded Mr Kelly.